Penerapan Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Infrence System (ANFIS) dalam Prediksi Produksi Tembakau di Jember
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22441/incomtech.v13i1.15655Kata Kunci:
ANFIS, Prediksi, Produksi TembakauAbstrak
Tembakau merupakan salah satu komoditas perkebunan di Indonesia. Kabupaten Jember merupakan penghasil tembakau kualitas dunia terbesar di Jawa Timur. Produksi tembakau di Kabupaten Jember mengalami fluktuasi setiap tahunnya sehingga perlu dilakukan prediksi produksi tembakau dengan menggunakan ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi produksi tembakau di Kabupaten Jember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah curah hujan, luas lahan panen tembakau, produktivitas tembakau, dan produksi tembakau di Kabupaten Jember. Jaringan ANFIS yang dibuat terdiri dari tiga variabel input dan satu variabel output. Fungsi keanggotaan yang digunakan adalah generalized bell dan gaussian dengan total fungsi keanggotaan sebesar tiga buah. Jenis output dibagi menjadi dua, yaitu linier dan konstan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik adalah menggunakan fungsi keanggotaan generalized bell tipe output konstan dengan nilai MAPE pada proses pelatihan dan pengujian berturut-turut adalah 0,00015% dan 0,091%. Hasil prediksi produksi tembakau pada tahun 2021 adalah 199.603,71 kuintal. Variabel yang paling berpengaruh untuk produksi tembakau adalah curah hujan dan produktivitas tembakau.
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